Dr. Chan on herd immunity: 'A lot of people would get sick and a lot would die'

State epidemiologist speaks to the dangers of "herd immunity" as Gov. Sununu looks on during Tuesday's COVID-19 press conference in Concord. (WMUR screenshot)

CONCORD - The state's top epidemiologist on Tuesday said the goal of "herd immunity" is not a good strategy in the fight against COVID-19.

In a response to a question from The Rochester Voice Dr. Benjamin Chan said while there are ongoing discussions about the concept of "herd immunity," there are inherent risks.

"The goal is not herd immunity," Chan said. "It has potentially serious situations, cause a lot of people would get sick and a lot would die."

According to the Mayo Clinic, a nonprofit medical center headquartered in Rochester, Minn., "Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. As a result, the whole community becomes protected - not just those who are immune."

The Rochester Voice posed the question after seeing several weeks with 100s of new cases even as current hospitalizations continue to fall, down to 24 today, the lowest number since the COVID-19 crisis took hold in March.

In response to the recent numbers and after a request of DHHS Commissioner Lori Shibonette to release the percentage of new confirmed cases that are asymptomatic, she said it was next to impossible to do.

"I do think at least a percentage are asymptomatic people, they are increasing and more and more are transmitting it asymptomatically," Shibonette said.

Queried specifically on whether contact tracers ask newly confirmed cases if they are having COVID-19 symptoms she said, "It's difficult. Contact tracers might have someone say I consider myself asymptomatic and then a few days later say they got a sore throat. Now we have to wonder are those allergies or was that COVID."

She added that once a confirmed case reports symptoms, they have to try to determine if they are asymptomatic, presymptomatic or not even COVID related.

Shibonette did say, however, that those data points - whether confirmed cases are asymptomatic upon being found COVID positive - may be available "down the road."

Chan also expounded on his thinking that herd immunity is a dubious strategy.

"It's not viable," he said, "And we don't know the longterm protections. If it's like a common cold, people can be reinfected. It doesn't guarantee immunity. The reinfection may be less severe, but it's very likely that when someone gets infected, they could get reinfected.

"It continues to be a very active area of discussion, but it's not a strategy. The goal is to control the spread, not to achieve herd immunity."

Gov. Sununu, meanwhile, was peppered by national media about President Trump's Saturday campaign rally at Pease Tradeport and whether it posed a safety hazard to New Hampshire residents.

"Look, the president of the United States is running for office and there have been other campaign events run in this state," Gov. Sununu said, adding he will be there to greet the president but probably not attend the rally.

He also noted that masks will be given out at the rally, that older Granite Staters, especially those with underlying health conditions, should not attend and he himself, won't be there.

"I don't think I want to be in a crowd with thousands of people," he quipped.

Black Lives Matter plans to protest prior to Trump's rally at Pease International Airport Saturday night.

A post on the Black Lives Matter Nashua Facebook page promises a "peaceful" protest and asks that no one bring "any kind of intoxicants or firearms" and adds "we are working to coordinate medical professionals and peacekeepers."

It also urges participants to be "prepared for armed opposition."

Current Situation in New Hampshire

NH Persons with COVID-19 5,932

Recovered 4,758 (80%)

Deaths Attributed to COVID-19 384 (6%)

Total Current COVID-19 Cases 790

Persons Who Have Been Hospitalized for COVID-19 577 (10%)

Current Hospitalizations 24

Persons Being Monitored in NH (approximate point in time) 3,450